Projections for growth in global merchandise trade in 2023 have been scaled back by WTO economists amid a continued slump that began in the fourth quarter of 2022, WAM said in a report, citing the latest WTO trade forecast released on October 5.

The volume of world merchandise trade is now expected to grow by 0.8% this year, less than half the 1.7% increase forecasted in April. The 3.3% growth projected for 2024 remains nearly unchanged from the previous estimate.

The WTO furthermore expects real world GDP to grow by 2.6% at market exchange rates in 2023 and by 2.5% in 2024, as set out in the WTO's “Global Trade Outlook and Statistics — Update: October 2023.”

Trade growth should pick up next year, accompanied by slow but stable GDP growth. Sectors that are more sensitive to business cycles should stabilise and rebound as inflation moderates and interest rates start to come down.

WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said: “The projected slowdown in trade for 2023 is cause for concern, because of the adverse implications for the living standards of people around the world.

“Global economic fragmentation would only make these challenges worse, which is why WTO members must seize the opportunity to strengthen the global trading framework by avoiding protectionism and fostering a more resilient and inclusive global economy.

“The global economy, and in particular poor countries, will struggle to recover without a stable, open, predictable, rules-based and fair multilateral trading system.” - TradeArabia News Service