The global air cargo markets showed the strongest year-on-year growth in roughly two years in November 2023, according to data from International Air Transport Association (IATA).

 

Global demand for air cargo, measured in cargo tonne-kilometres (CTKs) increased by 8.3% compared to November 2022. For international operations, demand growth was 8.1%. 

 

Middle Eastern carriers had the strongest performance in November 2023, with a 13.5% year-on-year increase in cargo volumes. This was similar to the significant improvement noted in the previous month’s performance (+13.0%). Capacity increased 15.4% compared to November 2022.

 

The global growth is partly due to weakness in November 2022, but it also reflects a fourth consecutive month of strengthening demand for air cargo, IATA said.

 

Capacity, measured in available cargo tonne-kilometres (ACTKs), was up 13.7% compared to November 2022 (+11.6% for international operations). Most of the capacity growth continues to be attributable to the increase in belly capacity as international passenger markets continue their post-Covid recovery.

 

Pre-Covid comparison

Compared to November 2019 (pre-Covid-19), demand is down 2.5% while capacity is up 4.1%.

Some indicators to note include: 

• Both the manufacturing output and new export order Purchasing Managers Indexes (PMIs) – two leading indicators of global air cargo demand -- continued to hover just below the 50-mark in November with small positive movements indicating a deceleration of the economic slowdown. 

• Global cross-border trade recorded growth for the third consecutive month in October, reversing its previous downward trend.

• Inflation in major advanced economies continued to soften in November as measured by the corresponding Consumer Price Index (CPI), centering around 3% year-on-year for the United States, Japan, as well as the EU, in November. In the meantime, China exhibited negative annual growth in its CPI for the second time in a row. 

• Air cargo yields (including surcharges) continued their significant upward trend (+8.9% since October). Rising yields are in line with improving air cargo load factors over recent months. This could be tied in part to booming e-commerce deliveries from China to western markets.

 

“November air cargo demand was up 8.3% on 2022 -- the strongest year-on-year growth in almost two years. That is a doubling of October’s 3.8% increase and a fourth month of positive market development. It is shaping up to be an encouraging year-end for air cargo despite the significant economic concerns that were present throughout 2023 and continue on the horizon,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General. 

 

Other Regional Performances

Asia-Pacific airlines saw their air cargo volumes increase by 13.8% in November 2023 compared to the same month in 2022. This performance was significantly above the previous month’s growth of 7.6%. Available capacity for the region’s airlines increased by 29.6% compared to November 2022 as more belly capacity came online with the removal of Covid-19 restrictions.

 

North American carriers had the weakest demand growth in November with a 1.8% increase (YoY) in cargo volumes. This was, nonetheless, a significant improvement in performance compared to October’s -1.8% contraction. Capacity increased by 4.0% compared to November 2022.

 

European carriers saw their air cargo volumes increase by 6.7% in November compared to the same month in 2022. This was a stronger performance than in October (1.0%). Capacity increased 6.5% in November 2023 compared to 2022.

 

Latin American carriers experienced a 4.2% increase in cargo volumes compared to November 2022, very similar to the 4.0% year-on-year increase recorded for October. Capacity in November was up 7.7% compared to the same month in 2022.

 

African airlines saw their air cargo volumes increase by 3.9% in November 2023, slightly improved compared to October’s +2.9% growth performance. Capacity was 14.0% above November 2022 levels. – TradeArabia News Service