Famine is imminent in the northern governorates of Gaza and projected to occur anytime between mid-March and May 2024, according to a new report.

 

According to the most likely scenario, both North Gaza and Gaza Governorates are classified in the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) Phase 5 (Famine) with reasonable evidence, with 70% (around 210,000 people) of the population in IPC Phase 5 (Catastrophe), the IPC partnership said in its latest update on Gaza. 

 

Continued conflict and the near-complete lack of access to the northern governorates for humanitarian organisations and commercial trucks will likely compound heightened vulnerabilities and extremely limited food availability, access and utilization, as well as access to healthcare, water, and sanitation, it said.

 

The southern governorates of Deir al-Balah and Khan Younis, and the Governorate of Rafah, are classified in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency). However, in a worst-case scenario, these governorates face a risk of famine through July 2024.

 

The entire population in the Gaza Strip (2.23 million) is facing high levels of acute food insecurity. Between mid-March and mid-July, in the most likely scenario and under the assumption of an escalation of the conflict including a ground offensive in Rafah, half of the population of the Gaza Strip (1.11 million people) is expected to face catastrophic conditions (IPC Phase 5), the most severe level in the IPC Acute Food Insecurity scale. This is an increase of 530,000 people (92 percent) compared to the previous analysis, the report said.

 

IPC is a multi-partner initiative for improving food security and nutrition analysis and decision-making. By using the IPC classification and analytical approach, governments, UN Agencies, NGOs, civil society and other relevant actors, work together to determine the severity and magnitude of acute and chronic food insecurity, and acute malnutrition situations in a country, according to internationally recognised standards. 

 

As a member of the IPC partnership, WHO provided technical expertise and information on the health situation for this evaluation. 

The conflict is posing extreme limitations to the ability to deliver life-saving health assistance to the population. In February 2024, attacks against healthcare facilities, infrastructures and services continued resulting in 58% of the hospitals not functioning in Gaza especially in the northern governorates (75% of the hospitals not functioning). 

 

According to the Health Cluster, as of 5 March 2024, only two hospitals and no primary health care centres were fully functioning. Acute respiratory infections and diarrheal diseases are rampant among children under five, exposing them to high-risk nutritional deterioration. 

 

The full recommendations from the IPC says: “Famine can be halted -- both in the immediate term and it requires urgent and proactive measures from parties to the conflict and the international community. They must immediately curb the rapidly escalating hunger crisis in the Gaza Strip, garner political support to put an end to the hostilities, mobilise necessary resources and ensure the safe delivery of humanitarian aid to the people of Gaza.  

 

Overall recommendations 

* Restore humanitarian access to the entire Gaza Strip. 

* Stop the fast-paced deterioration of the food security, health and nutrition situation leading to excess mortality through:  

 -- the restoration of health, nutrition, and WASH services and the protection of civilians; and 

-- the provision of safe, nutritious, and sufficient food to all the population in need.  

* The sustained supply of sufficient aid commodities, including but not limited to food, medicines, specialist nutrition products, fuel, and other necessities should be allowed to enter and move throughout the entire Gaza Strip by road. Traffic of commercial goods should also be fully resumed to meet the volume of commodities required. - TradeArabia News Service